Celgene (CELG) vs. Nasdaq 100 (NDX): food (or maybe drugs) for thought

Dow Jones Industrial Average Long-term pivot

Dow Jones Industrial Average Long-term pivot

Close-up 2007

Close-up 2013

Update on US indeces macro proportions

Albeit circumspect, reaction at upper wedge-like trend-line on SPX and DJI + 61.8% large multi-week fib extension on SPX (to the tick!), while NDX did not break out, allows to keep last post' stance (R2K break above 2007 top and trend-line is of concern).
Updated charts below.

NDX Monthly

NDX Daily

SPX Monthly

SPX Daily

DJI Monthly

DJI Daily

R2K Monthly

R2K Daily

Proportions for a possible important top

Dear Reader,

After a long communication breakdown, I resume posting today because I would like to share with you one potentially important finding of a review of markets after today's close.

My analysis suggests that today an important top might have been put in place across the 4 major US indices (Nasdaq100, S&P500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000).

This post could be lost among the millions attempts to predict a major turning point, but I felt it was worth sharing it this time.

Below I insert snapshots of what the markets look like to my eye tonight.

NDX Monthly

NDX Daily

SPX Monthly

SPX Daily

DJI Monthly

DJI Daily

R2K Monthly

R2K Daily

ES - 2 August, 2012 closing re-cap

Pre-ECB ramp-up to the extreme 78.6% fib retracement of entire previous movement = Tuesday high @1383.

Disappointment at Draghi's announcement starts the sell-off.

TH opening ramp-up to 50% fib retracement (h.10:25), drawn from anchor point ECB high (validated by the 78.6% = Tuesday high).

Low of the day at -23.6% standard fib retracement of same previous 50% fib retracement =  -50%fde opening gyration (TH 60m OR) = RSI/price positive divergence.

Notable (see two charts above): when, at the ramp-up opening, the ES had reached the 38.2% fib retracement of the larger possible high-to-low, the $DJI had not yet. When the $DJI reached its 38.2% fib retracement (h.10:25), ES was @50% fib retracement of the smaller proportion and that was then enough to continue lower (i.e. $DJI proportion is leading).

Realized P&L was €1,890.

I end the day flat.

ES - 2 August, 2012 pre-ECB set-up

In keeping with the larger short bias portrayed in the Week-end review (23-27 July, 2012), I would initiate short positions, should the market reach the following levels:
 - 1384.75; and
 - 1386.5.

The shorts would be invalidated upon the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) breaching and staying above 13128.64 (Monday top), during cash trading hours.

On the flip side, I would split a long entry between 1363-1364, for a 3-5pts target.

ES - 1 August, 2012 closing re-cap

The reaction to the FED announcement brought the market to the bottom of a descending channel (anchored to TH high/low) = -23.6%fde.

Realized P&L was €700.

I end the day flat.